Here we see that lower priced homes, by far the largest segment of our real estate market by quantity of sales, have been the most negatively affected by market changes: year to year, house and condo sales under $1,000,000 declined by 28% and 40% respectively. Conversely, at the highest end, house and condo sales increased by 34% and 100%, though the actual number of sales is small. (Due to the small number of sales and the huge range in sales prices, changes in median price at the high end are not particularly meaningful.) The middle range declined by 12 – 16% in unit sales, with mixed results in median sales prices.

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Comparing 1st Qtr 08 to 1st Qtr 07, the number of home sold in San Francisco decreased about 27%, with properties below $1,000,000—condos in particular—showing the largest drop. The lower end of the SF housing market—to a large degree fueled by first-time buyers—has been the most affected by market upheaval and new financing conditions. The middle price range, $1,000,000 to $1,999,999, showed a much smaller decrease, while sales of $2,000,000 and above actually increased.

Median days-on-market for all houses and condos sold barely changed (37 days in 07 vs. 36 in 08), but for homes on the market that didn’t sell stayed on the market longer (60 - 69 days in 07 vs. 80 - 89 in 08)—i.e., the homes selling are generally selling relatively quickly, but those not selling are staying on the market for longer periods of time (and so price reductions are increasing too). The quicker a home sells, the higher the sales price as a percentage of list price: those selling within 30 days average 4 - 7% more than those which do not. The below graph does not adjust for price reductions—which would significantly increase the difference.

Sale Price to List Price (SP/LP) by Days-on-Market, First Quarter 2008

The number of homes for sale has gone up about 20%, and the months-supply-of-inventory has increased by 1 month (3.2 vs. 2.2 months). The median sales price of all homes sold increased by about 3%. Though down from its peak in May 07, San Francisco is the only Bay Area County still showing median price increases year over year. (Some counties have shown declines in excess of 40 %.)

City-wide averages and median numbers mask dramatic differences between different SF neighborhoods. Some areas still feature low inventory, high demand, multiple offers and quick sales; others—generally the less affluent—are on the opposite end of the spectrum.

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Home ownership in “the best place on earth” is a solid investment even in shaky economic times. The median price for single family homes and condos in San Francisco jumped from $780,000 to $810,000 between March 2006 and March 2008.  

Like any real estate market, we have month-to-month fluctuations. But compared to other markets across the country, we clearly have a continued historical strength and resilience in our local market.  And San Francisco continues to be one of the most coveted real estate markets in the country.

There’s lots to choose from, interest rates are low and San Francisco continues to be one of the best performing areas in the entire country. If you can afford it and are ready for the ‘five year hold rule’ it’s a great time to buy.
 

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Our business development guru loves to sift through statistics. Here is some information he found about prices going up and down in certain neighborhoods.  The District numbers he refers to come from our Board of Realtors Map.

District 5 reached a new high in median home price in March 2008: $1,125,000Districts 3 & 10 posted their lowest median sales prices in the past 2 years–District 3 is down $123,000 from its median in 3/06; its median sales price is now $566,000

District 3 combines more expensive neighborhoods with sketchier ones– like tony Lakeshore (as in Lake Merced) and Pine Lake Park (near cute part of Ocean Avenue between 19th and Junipero Serra). Some lower-end locales in District 3 are Oceanview and Ingleside Heights– please keep in mind that in any edgy neighborhood you get the good mixed up with the bad. I know solid folks who have lived in these areas for many years on quiet tidy blocks with neighbors that truly care about their homes. Alas, these neighborhoods tend to be in fog belts.

District 10 neighborhoods swing towards the Daly City border. They are: Bayview, Crocker Amazon (which has some lovely architecture and tree-lined streets), Excelsior, Outer Mission, Visitacion Valley, Portola (some great views here), Silver Terrace, Mission Terrace (which also has some nice curved blocks and 1920s-30s architecture), and Hunters Point.  These neighborhoods are a mix of sun and fog– Bayview tends to be quite sunny, and Silver and Mission Terrace can be more socked in.

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In case you’ve been wondering why high-end real estate markets continue to perform relatively well:  One out of every 10,000 American families has an annual income greater than $10.7 million, according to two university professors who study the super-rich.  By their tally, there are some 15,000 Americans who fit into that category.  These individuals also are getting an increasing share of the economic bounty:  In 2006, the super-rich possessed 3.89 percent of total income, up from .87 percent in 1980 and the highest level since 1916.

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This email message was forwarded to me from Dan Baker of Countrywide (yes Countrywide was sold to BofA, but the complete transition hasn’t happened yet). It comes from Tony Machado of RC Appraisal.

As many of you know I have been saying for quite a while now the housing market is showing some momentum in the right direction and the purchase market without a doubt is picking up.  What I am tired of is listening to the Media who are constantly putting out a negative message.

In my business alone more than 50% the assignments in Q-1-2008 have been purchase transactions.  To give you a comparison, in Q-4-2007 purchase assignments were less than 10% of my business.

Just this morning I completed a market analysis in Antioch showing that in 2007 based on the subject CMA (comparative market analysis) there were a total of 3 sales in all of 2007.  In Q-1-2008 based on the same criteria there have been 9 sales which translates to a 300% increase!  By the way a CMA analysis is based on just a 1 mile radius of the subject property and only criteria which fit the subject parameters.  I could analyze the whole City but you get the point.

I’m certain that Tony’s appraisals aren’t coming in nearly as high as they were before the mortgage (and market) meltdown of last summer, but higher sales activity translates into higher demand, which will ultimately draw down the oversupply. Low supply/high demand means a gradual increase in prices.

Of course all this hinges on a decline in foreclosure sales so that less inventory come on.

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April 2008
February 2008 SF House & Condo Median Price: $791,500 (Up 3.5 % from 2/07) Unit Sales: 292 (down 23% from 2/07) Median Days on Market: 34 (down 8 days from 2/07) Homes for Sale: 1945 (up 23% from 2/07) Market Conditions by Neighborhood* ExcellentNoe/Castro/Haight: house Pac Hts/Marina: house GoodNoe/Castro/Haight: condo Pacific Hts/Marina: condo Richmond/Lake: house Hayes Vly/Alamo: condo St Francis/W Portal: house Sunset/Parkside: house FairRussian & Nob Hills: condo SOMA/Mission: condo Weak or PoorBayview/Portola/Excelsior* Seller Perspective, per Chicago Title Market Condition Report, March 2008 “Despite it being extraordinarily costly, the Bay Area still offered enough economic incentives, innovation and amenities to offset the expense of living there.If I had to give advice, I would say to buy homes closer to the core, not in the outlying areas.The really knowledge driven people.use their time more efficiently, so center locations have become more valuable.”-Richard Florida, Who’s Your City What You Get for How Much WhereRecent San Francisco Sales at Selected Price PointsFor about $11,000,000 6 BR, 6.5 BA, 8800 sq.ft., 1923 Cow Hollow Edwardian, GG Bridge to Alcatraz views; 3 car pkg, den, office, atrium, solarium, 3 fireplaces, garden, elevator. $1250/sq.ft. For about $8,000,000 5 BR, 4.5 BA, 1927 Spanish Med “villa” in Marina by Palace of Fine Arts, park/lake view; 2 car pkg, library, office, atrium, gym, guest suite, yard.For about $6,500,000 3 BR, 3.5 BA, 1963 Russian Hill Art Deco co-op, 300° views of bridges, bay, dwntwn; 3 car pkg, den, family rm, deck, doorman.For about $5,000,000 4 BR, 5.5 BA, 3330 sq.ft., 2001 Four Seasons Hotel condo, 280° views of bay/dwntwn/ocean; 1 car valet pkg, guest qtrs, office. $1500/sq.ft. For about $2,500,000 4 BR, 4.5 BA, 3886 sq.ft., 2000 Noe Vly house; 3 car pkg, yard, deck. $630/sq.ft. 4 BR, 4 BA, 3272 sq.ft., 1922 Sea Cliff home, GG bridge vw; 2 car pkg, deck. $769/sq.ft. 4 BR, 3 BA, 3840 sq.ft. Pac Hghts condo; 1 car pkg, family room, office. $650/sq.ft.For about $2,000,000 6 BR, 3 BA, 1900 Buena Vista Vict, park/dwntwn views; 1 car pkg, garden. $500/sq.ft. 5 BR, 4 BA, 1933 Balboa Ter Spanish Med, ocean view; 1 car pkg, library, wine cellar. 4 BR, 3.5 BA, 1891 Queen Anne Alamo Sq. Vict dwntwn view; 1 car pkg. $502/sq.ft. 3 BR, 2 BA, 1950 sq.ft., 1906 Presidio Hts Edward condo, bay views; 3 car pkg. $1038/sq.ft. 1 BR, 1.5 BA, 1230 sq.ft. Nob Hill Penthouse, 360°vws; 1 car pkg, deck, den. $1584/sq.ft. For about $1,500,000 3 BR, 2 BA, 1740 sq.ft., 1949 Clarendon Hts fixer, pano views; 2 car pkg. $862/sq.ft. 3 BR, 2 BA, 2060 sq.ft., 1922 condo on Mtn Lake Pk, lake view; 1 car pkg. $743/sq.ft. 2 BR, 2 BA, 1949 sq.ft., 2004 So Beach loft, bay views; 2 car pkg, doorman. $780/sq.ft. Two 3+ BR Edwardian Park Presidio flats, 4200 sq.ft., need work; 4 car pkg. $357/sq.ft. For about $1,250,000 4 BR, 3 BA, 1929 Spanish Med home in Miraloma Park; 1 car pkg, 2 master suites. 3 BR, 2 BA, 1534 sq.ft., top flr, 1999 N. Panhandle condo, park view; 2 car pkg. $831/sq.ft. 2 BR, 2 BA, 1821 sq.ft., 1960 Potrero home, bay views; 2 car pkg, fam rm. $664/sq.ft. 2 BR, 2 BA, 1480 sq.ft., 1929 Marina condo, Pac Hghts view; 1 car pkg. $844/sq.ft. 2 BR, 1 BA, 1430 sq.ft., 1937 Cole Vly house; 1 car pkg, bonus rm, yard. $885/sq.ft.For about $1,000,000 4 BR, 3.5 BA, 1996 sq.ft., 1931 Marina-style Sunset home; 1 car pkg, yard. $488/sq.ft. 3 BR, 2 BA, 1622 sq.ft., top flr Edwardian TIC in Jordan Park; 1 car pkg. $617/sq.ft. 3 BR, 1 BA, 1740 sq.ft., 1914 Inner Richmond Edwardian; 1 car pkg, sunroom. $586/sq.ft. 2 BR, 2 BA, 1772 sq.ft., 2003 Mission Bay loft, city lights view; 1 car pkg, den. $593/sq.ft. 2 BR, 1 BA, 1880 sq.ft., 1910 Glen Pk Vict, city lights view; 1 car pkg. $535/sq.ft.For about $800,000 3 BR, 2 BA, 1375 sq.ft., 1912 Bernal Hghts Vict; 2 car pkg, deck. $581/sq.ft. 3 BR, 1.5 BA, 1672 sq.ft., 1907 Dwntwn brick carriage house; 1 car pkg. $478/sq.ft. 2 BR, 3 BA, 1588 sq.ft., 2002 3-lvl SOMA loft; 1 car pkg, deck. $508/sq.ft. 2 BR, 2 BA, 1203 sq.ft., 1995 top flr Mission Dolores loft, dwntwn vw; 1 car pkg. $665/sq.ft. 2 BR, 1 BA, 1460 sq.ft., 1923 Westwood Pk bungalow, needs work; 1 car pkg. $540/sq.ft. For about $650,000 3 BR, 1 BA, 1460 sq.ft., 1900 Hayes Vly TIC; 1 car leased pkg. $469/sq.ft. 2 BR, 1 BA, 941 sq.ft., 1958 Midtown Ter fixer, Twin Peaks view; 2 car pkg. $703/sq.ft. 1 BR, 1 BA, 737 sq.ft., 2004 South Beach top flr condo; 1 car pkg. $868/sq.ft.For about $275,000 2 BR, 1 BA, 600 sq.ft., gutted Ingleside Hghts home, contractor’s special. $433/sq.ft. 1 BR, 1 BA, 610 sq.ft., Bay View Hghts contractor’s special; no pkg, city views. $451/sq.ft. As always, the devil’s in the details: exact location, condition, quality of construction & renovations, curb appeal, views, lot size and many other factors, all impact real estate values. Per San Francisco MLS: subject to errors, omissions or revisions and not warranted.
Cece Blase Cece’s BIO180 Redwood Street #350 San Francisco, CA 94102 Direct 415-738-7214 Fax 415-738-7264 Mobile 415-577-0809 cblase@paragon-re.com http://www.sfrealestatebuzz.com	If you’d like more information regarding these or other sales, please contact me. For market stats specific to your neighborhood, visit: www.paragon-re.com/UpdateReport.htm

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